Initial variables of the data collection process:
UN/UN peacekeeping policy reform
No record.
Perception of peacekeeping
Participating in peacekeeping activities has been seen as a way to extend their relations with key countries and international organizations such as NATO.
Domestic political environment
The presidential election, due to be held in December 2007, will dominate the political scene over the next year (EIU 2006cs, 1). Uzbekistan is the most populous Central Asian country and has the largest armed forces (BBC 2006bk, par. 1). There is no real internal opposition and the media is tightly controlled by the state (Ibid.).
The most recent violence came in the eastern city of Andijan in May 2005 when troops opened fire on protesters against the jailing of people charged with Islamic extremism. Witnesses reported a bloodbath with several hundred civilian deaths (Ibid., par. 3). The Uzbek authorities put the overall toll at over 180 (Ibid.).
The EU imposed sanctions when the authorities rejected calls for an international inquiry and the US threatened to withhold aid. Soon afterwards parliament voted to demand that US forces leave their base in the south of the country. Opponents of President Karimov blamed the authorities' brutal determination to crush all dissent. The president himself blamed fundamentalists seeking the overthrow of constitutional order and the establishment of a Muslim caliphate in Central Asia. At what many outside observers described as a show trial, 15 people were later convicted of organizing the unrest and given prison terms of between 14 and 20 years. Dozens of others were also jailed for lengthy terms. The president's uncompromising policies have at times created friction between Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries and Uzbekistan has been wary of moves towards closer political integration. (Ibid., par. 4)
Economic reform has been painfully slow to materialize (Ibid., par. 7). Poverty and unemployment are widespread (Ibid.). As a result, many international financial organizations have stated that Uzbekistan is not a reliable for loans. For example, “the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced in April 2004 that it was slashing aid to Uzbekistan because of the country's failure to reform and its poor human rights record” (Ibid.).
Military affairs
Uzbekistan is the most populous Central Asian country and has the largest armed forces (Ibid., par. 1). As the centre of the Soviet military district in Central Asia, Uzbekistan inherited a large military infrastructure from the Soviet Union, and had built up its armed forces to 55,000 personnel by 2002 (EIU 2006av, 14). Nevertheless, new challenges appeared. A scheme to increase troop numbers to 100,000 was dropped in 1999 because of budgetary constraints (Ibid.). Instead, the armed forces are to be reduced in two stages: conscription will be phased out and the forces gradually made fully professional, although there is no indication of when these reforms will be undertaken (Ibid.).
Foreign policy
Uzbekistan’s foreign policy since independence has generally been directed towards ensuring an external security guarantee (Ibid., 10). Uzbekistan felt threatened by the civil wars in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, by the regional ambitions of Iran and Pakistan, and was suspicious of Turkey, which briefly gave asylum to Uzbek dissidents (Ibid.). Thus, it is very important for Uzbekistan to seek ties with the USA.
The war in Afghanistan was the best opportunity to offer support to the USA, but the support has not been strong. However, until 2001 Uzbekistan was perceived as being marginal to the security concerns of Russia and the US. In addition, Russian policy towards the region was erratic, ranging from near-abandonment of Central Asia in 1992 to greater engagement, as exemplified by the…CIS Collective Security Treaty, which was signed in Tashkent in 1994. But Uzbekistan knew that the regional agreements do not have the same impact as the bilateral relations. As a result, Uzbekistan declined to renew its membership of the pact in 1999, but this was less an anti-Russian move than a desire by Karimov to pursue a closer bilateral Uzbek-Russian security relationship. Uzbekistan’s efforts were successful, especially for finding a common security element between both countries. The security element was Islamic extremism. Since 1999 the fight against Islamist extremism of which there is a strong element in Chechnya has been a common interest between Russia and Uzbekistan, and it has brought the two countries closer together. (Ibid.)
Additional variables found after the preliminary analysis:
Climate changes
No record.
Independent negotiations taken by DPKO to seek troops
No record.
Independent negotiations taken by contributor countries to engage non-contributor countries
No record.
Meetings organized by other international organizations to engage in dialogue about peacekeeping
Uzbekistan has told the European members of the NATO that it will no longer allow them to use its airspace or territory as a rear base for their peacekeeping operations in neighboring Afghanistan (Xinhua 2005, par. 1). Alliance officials stated that the ban will take effect from January 1 and it is a response to an EU decision to impose visa bans on 12 top Uzbek officials and an arms embargo on Uzbekistan (Ibid.).
Uzbekistan has participated in NATO exercises. For example, Poland hosted NATO international exercises called Strong Resolve 2002 on March (BBC-MIR 2002c, par. 1).
A contingent about 30,000 strong from the armed forces of NATO members and countries which are signatories to the…[PfP] program—Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Austria, Bulgaria, Finland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Ireland–will arrive in Poland to participate in the drills. The aim of these is to improve the coordination of the armies’ actions during peacekeeping operations. (Ibid.)
